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Porcelain Picks | Bankroll Build Day 5 Recap - Saturday/Sunday, August 15/16th

Monday, August 17, 2026

Rough day. Scheffler winning the tournament cashed the outright I added Saturday, but that same result also killed the three pre-tournament longshot outrights that were still live. Combined with the Yellamaraju matchup and Jung Hoo Lee triples both missing, it was a 1-5 day.

Results

✅ Scottie Scheffler Outright Winner -200 — WON

  • Wager: $75 → Paid: $112.50 (+$37.50 profit)

  • Added Saturday as the closer play with a 3-shot lead. Scheffler did what Scheffler does. Everything the model said would happen played out.

    • ❌ Sudarshan Yellamaraju +115 over Keith Mitchell (R3 2-Ball) — LOST

  • Wager: $50 → $0 (-$50)

  • The ball-striking edge was massive on paper. Mitchell's putter kept working. Golf variance in a one-round matchup.

    • ❌ Jung Hoo Lee Over 0.5 Triples +2000 — LOST

  • Wager: $100 → $0 (-$100)

  • Longshot with real structural edges (LHB at Oracle Park's 149 3B factor vs a gas can RHP). Didn't hit tonight.

    • ❌ Russell Henley +4000 Pre-Tournament Outright — LOST

  • Wager: $10 → $0 (-$10)

  • Settled when Scheffler won the tournament. Model top-6 profile that couldn't get past Scheffler's dominance.

    • ❌ Si Woo Kim Pre-Tournament Outright (Kalshi @ 2.56%) — LOST

  • Wager: $9.99 → $0 (-$9.99)

  • Same story. Elite ball-striking profile but Scheffler simply had a bigger week.

    • ❌ Akshay Bhatia Pre-Tournament Outright (Kalshi @ 1.06%) — LOST

  • Wager: $10 → $0 (-$10)

  • The pure longshot dart on the #1 Southwind course history. Kalshi's implied 1.06% correctly priced in how tough it was.

    • Bankroll Update

  • Starting Bankroll: $609.16

  • Wagered Today (settled): $254.99

  • Returned Today: $112.50

  • Net: -$142.49

  • New Bankroll: $466.67

    • Record on settled bets: 1-5

    Weekend Takeaway

    FedEx St. Jude weekend was a losing week overall. Scheffler being the pre-tournament chalk that closed it out killed all three of the longshot outrights I was live on. The R2 leader tickets on Scheffler cashed nicely (both from Friday's recap), but the two size plays (Matsuyama Under Friday, Yellamaraju matchup Saturday) both missed.

    The process on the longshot outrights was right (best structural fit + best ball-striking profile + biggest model gap), but the outcome of the best player winning wire-to-wire is the exact scenario that neutralizes them. Onto next week.

    Porcelain Talk | Porcelain Picks | Bankroll Build Day 5 Recap - Saturday/Sunday, August 15/16th