Porcelain Picks MLB | Monday, July 20th

Kevin McGonigle 3+ H+R+RBI (+120)

Hitting weather at Wrigley is elite tonight. 82 degrees with 10 mph winds blowing straight out to center. In similar weather conditions at this park, home runs increase by 38% and runs increase by 22%. That's your setup.

On the mound for the Cubs, Taillon has been giving up a ton of fly balls this year, and a lot of those are turning into home runs, particularly to lefties. His K rate sits at 19%, his walk rate is very high at 12%, his wOBA against is .395, and he's giving up 3.4 HR/9. His GB/FB numbers show him allowing twice as many fly balls as ground balls, and 22% of those fly balls are leaving the park. He doesn't give up much soft contact at all and gives up a lot of hard contact this year. I really like targeting him with lefties, though you can absolutely target the righties too.

McGonigle at the top of the lineup is the spot I want. He only strikes out at a 12% rate against right-handed pitching, walks a lot, has a high .380 wOBA, and leans fly ball. He's going to get the ball in the air and he's going to be on base a lot. I think there are going to be a lot of Detroit baserunners in this game, which sets up really well for the 3+ line here, whether it comes from one of his own balls in the air, a home run, or a multi-hit game where he scores once and comes back up with ducks on the pond. Really good spot.