Porcelain Picks MLB | Thursday, July 23rd

Not a big slate today, but there are some specific spots where the matchup lines up for a home run. Running a HR-only card today.

San Diego @ Atlanta: Target the Braves Lineup

Griffin Canning is opening the game and Kyle Hart is coming in behind him. Both pitchers really struggle against lefties. Both sit around a 19% K rate average, both have high wOBAs against, both give up 2+ HR/9, both are pretty 50/50 GB/FB guys, and 20% of their fly balls are ending up as home runs.

I like targeting Atlanta's lefties here. Specifically the lefty-on-lefty matchup since Hart is going to get the majority of the innings, but Canning is very targetable as well.

Drake Baldwin (+381)

20% K rate vs lefties, high wOBA. His GB/FB against lefties is a bit fly-ball heavy (2:1 FB), 30% of his fly balls are turning into home runs, and he has a very high hard hit rate against lefties.

Matt Olson (+327)

High wOBA vs lefties, very much leans fly ball, 16% HR/FB, high hard contact rate.

Michael Harris II (+392)

18% K rate, high wOBA, pretty 50/50 on ground balls and fly balls, and 15% of his fly balls are leaving the park.

Tampa Bay @ Toronto: Targeting Bieber

Shane Bieber has been giving up home runs and a lot of hard contact to both sides of the plate, with a low K rate against both sides. Either side is in play, specifically the right side.

Junior Caminero (+234)

Against right-handed pitching, Caminero has been on a tear all year. 20% K rate, very high wOBA, leans fly ball, 16% HR/FB, and a 41% hard contact rate.

Victor Mesa (+540)

Longer odds on this one. He really leans fly ball at a 0.58 GB/FB ratio, so very much a fly-ball hitter. 22% of those fly balls are leaving the park.