Porcelain Picks MLB | Tuesday, July 21st

Detroit @ Chicago: No Home Runs (+425)

Bad hitting weather tonight in Chicago with the wind blowing in. In similar weather conditions at this park, home runs decrease by 39%, which puts the average around 1.4 HRs per game in these conditions. That's pretty low. The two starters going tonight ([FLAG: pitcher names]) are both pretty heavy ground ball guys. Seems like a really good spot to target a high number like +425.

Mickey Moniak First PA Strikeout (+250) & First PA Any Out (+130)

Two ways to win on the same at-bat here. Palmquist is going for Washington tonight, set up as a short-appearance starter with a minimum one inning at least, though he could stretch further if he pitches well.

Palmquist this year has a 35% K rate to lefties. Last year that number was 25% with a larger sample size, so he can absolutely strike lefties out. Moniak is the lefty target facing him. He carries a 38.6% K rate against left-handed pitching this year, a super low .267 wOBA, and the contact profile is a mess with 28% soft contact and only 28% hard contact. Take the strikeout at +250 or the lower-variance any-out at +130.

Miami Marlins HR Plays (0.25u each, 1u total spread)

Splitting one unit across four Miami bats tonight. Houston's starter can really give up the long ball to lefties. He has a high K rate to them, but he also leaves pitches where he shouldn't: 14% walk rate to lefties, .372 wOBA, 2 HR/9, slight fly ball lean, and 20% of the fly balls against him from lefties leave the park. Very low soft contact rate and very high hard contact rate. Great spot to target Marlins power.

Kyle Stowers (+285)

Stowers strikes out at a high clip, so you're really looking for a K or a bomb here. He leans fly ball, and his numbers look pretty much identical to last year across the board, which were all good. A lot of hard contact. This year 17% of his fly balls are leaving the park compared to 28% last year, so given how much he gets the ball in the air with the hard contact, you're expecting some positive home run regression coming.

Liam Hicks (+720)

Hicks has been mashing this year, specifically against right-handed pitching. .380 wOBA against righties, slight ground ball lean (1.2 GB/FB), but when he gets one in the air, it's leaving the park at a 14% clip. Good number to target at this price.

Joe Mack (+730)

Mack isn't in the lineup every day, but he's in it a decent amount. He gets good solid contact (38.5% hard contact rate). Slight ground ball lean (1.2 GB/FB), but 20% of his fly balls are leaving the park. Solid spot at his price.

Griffin Conine (+392)

Conine has been mashing the ball this year. High K rate at 32%, but a .423 wOBA and more than 50% of his fly balls are leaving the park. Hard contact rate almost at 50% as well. The blemish is a ground ball lean on the year (2 GB/FB), but that has come way down in recent weeks. Over his last two weeks it's closer to 1.2 GB/FB, so he's starting to get a better launch angle on the ball.

Griffin Conine 1+ RBI (+184)

Same reasons as the HR plays above. Miami is going to get baserunners in this one, with the top of this lineup being very lefty-heavy against a righty who's been leaving pitches over the plate to that side. Conine is in a great spot to knock one in at big plus money.

Miami Marlins Team Total Over 4.5 (-110)

Same reasons as the HR plays above. I like a few of these guys to hit one out here, and I think this lineup can bat around on the Houston starter.