3M Open 2026: Round 1 & Outright Card

Scottie Scheffler: R1 Leader (+1250) & Outright (+260) (DraftKings)

This is the softest field Scheffler will see all year, and his statistical edge over this field is borderline absurd. His combined ball-striking (SG OTT + APP) sits at +1.47 on the season, nearly double anyone else near the top of this board. That's not a number that needs putting variance to hold up over 72 holes.

TPC Twin Cities is a birdie-fest on bent grass where you need to go low and avoid water trouble. Scheffler leads this field in weighted scoring, easy-course scoring, and birdie-to-bogey rate. His water danger profile is top 5. He's basically the perfect statistical fit for a course that rewards elite ball-strikers who can convert on scorable holes without creating train wrecks.

Only 19.7% of his SG total comes from putting, so his production is almost entirely skill-driven. That's the kind of sustainability you want backing a short-priced favorite. His L10 finish rate is the best in this field, and his SG total (+2.35) is in a completely different stratosphere from everyone else teeing it up this week.

For R1, he's top 3 in birdie putting, #1 in easy scoring, and his ball-striking means he doesn't need a heater on the greens to shoot 63. The talent gap between Scheffler and this field is as wide as it gets on the PGA Tour schedule, and +260/+1250 still gives you enough juice to make it worth firing on both. If he doesn't connect on R1 leader, I'll be looking to take him to lead at the end of each subsequent round as well. The stats are too dominant against this field to fade him on any given day.