FedEx St. Jude Championship 2026 | Round 2 - Bankroll Build
Friday, August 14, 2026
Hideki Matsuyama Under 68.5 R2 Score (-125, boosted to +100 with 25% Profit Boost)
$250 to win $500. The boost turns a fair number into a max-value spot.
The R1 Profile
Matsuyama's R1 was elite tee-to-green. He gained 3.00 strokes on approach (2nd-best in the field) and 0.53 off the tee, giving him the 4th-best ball-striking of anyone in Round 1. His score of -4 came despite losing 0.18 strokes putting. That's the definition of a sustainable round. His scoring wasn't inflated by a hot putter, it was driven entirely by iron play and driving.
The Season-Long Fit
He ranks 5th overall for the week, 5th on TPC courses, 9th on similar courses, and 11th in weighted scoring. This is a player whose game fits Southwind at an elite level, and his R1 confirmed it through the most reliable skill categories.
The Under Case
Under 68.5 asks him to shoot -2 or better. A player who just gained 3.53 strokes ball-striking in R1 while losing strokes putting has significant room for his score to improve if putting even normalizes to average. His SG approach number (3.00) was so high that even with moderate regression on irons, he'd still be projected well under 69. His around-the-green work was positive too (0.20 SG ARG), so there's no short game leak dragging him down.
The course fit, elite R1 ball-striking, and putting upside make Under 68.5 at -125 (boosted to +100) a strong spot.