FedEx St. Jude Championship 2026 | PGA Card - Bankroll Build
Thursday, August 13, 2026
Heads up on odds: I'm not in a great betting state right now, so I'm working with limited books and the prices you'll see below aren't always the best available. Shop these lines around wherever you can, especially the outright winner and R1 leader plays. On the longer prices (+3000, +4000), even a small bump in odds meaningfully changes the EV. Kalshi has been particularly good on the winner markets for me here.
Tommy Fleetwood -150 over Jordan Spieth (R1 2-Ball, Inc. Tie) — $200 to win $133.33
The biggest ticket on the card and the biggest model gap. Spencer's model has this as one of the widest matchup separations in the whole field.
Fleetwood (Model #2 overall):
Spieth (Model #48 overall):
The model rank gap here is 46 spots. Fleetwood ranks in the top 6 in almost every category that matters at TPC Southwind. Spieth ranks outside the top 30 in most of those same categories and his underlying trends have been declining. -150 is a bargain price for this skill gap. Would want to lay closer to -200 if it existed. Even at -150, this is the highest-conviction play on the card.
Russell Henley +4000 (Outright Winner) — $10 to win $400
Henley is Spencer's #6 overall in the field with a profile that fits Southwind exceptionally well.
40/1 for a top-6 model player with a top-3 bogey avoidance profile at a course where avoiding mistakes is everything. His T3 at the Charles Schwab earlier this year showed the ball-striking game can carry him at demanding venues. Shop this. If you can get +4500 or +5000 anywhere, take it.
Si Woo Kim +3000 (Outright Winner on Kalshi @ 2.56%) — $9.99 to win $380
Si Woo Kim +3000 (End of Round 1 Leader) — $10 to win $300
Doubled up on Si Woo across both the winner and R1 leader markets.
His scoring is entirely ball-striking driven with negative putting contribution. That's the sustainable profile you want on a course where the ball-striking metrics predict scoring far more than putting variance does. Upside rank of #4 is exactly the ceiling profile you want for a R1 leader bet.
Kalshi has him at a much better implied price than most sportsbooks here. The 2.56% implied gets you the same as +3800 in traditional odds. Shop this against traditional books too.
Akshay Bhatia +4000 (Outright Winner on Kalshi @ 1.06%) — $10 to win $925
Akshay Bhatia +4000 (End of Round 1 Leader) — $10 to win $400
The pure longshot play, driven by one massive stat.
The recent form and safety are legitimate concerns (Safety #37, L5 recent form #66), which is why the price is where it is. But the #1 Southwind course history in the field is the anchor of this play. Bhatia knows this course better than anyone in the field and combines that with an elite putter and a top-5 approach game on the weighted profile.
The Kalshi price at 1.06% (equivalent to +9400+) is significantly better than DK's +4000. Even accounting for the risk, that's a real value spot on a golfer with the best course fit history in the field. The R1 leader at +4000 gives you a way to cash on Thursday if his short game clicks.