John Deere Classic 2026: Pre-Tournament Picks

Outright Winner

Keith Mitchell (+2420)

Mitchell is one of the best ball-strikers in the field this season, gaining +0.592 strokes off the tee and +0.248 on approach. That combined +0.840 ball-striking number is elite, and it's doing the heavy lifting in his game rather than putting (+0.709 tee-to-green vs only -0.072 putting). That matters over four rounds because ball-striking sustains while putting fluctuates week to week. He fits TPC Deere Run's scoring profile well and has three consecutive cuts coming in. If the flat stick even approaches average this week, he's right there on Sunday.

Doug Ghim (+4500)

Ghim leads the field in strokes gained tee-to-green at +0.921 this season, driven by strong iron play (OTT +0.494, APP +0.201). His putting sits at -0.423, which looks like a weakness but actually points to upside. His scoring is entirely ball-striking driven, which is the most sustainable foundation over 72 holes. He's made six consecutive cuts, so the floor is a made weekend. At 45-to-1 for a player with the best tee-to-green in the field, there's a real gap between his statistical profile and his price.

A.J. Ewart (+14000)

Ewart is quietly one of the better players in this field on recent form (top 10 over his last 5 starts) and has made three consecutive cuts. His season strokes gained putting sits at +0.632, meaning he converts everything around the hole, and his course fit for easy scoring conditions is among the best in the field. TPC Deere Run rewards players who capitalize on birdie opportunities, and his short game does exactly that. At 140-to-1, the price significantly underestimates where his form and skill set place him this week.

Zachary Bauchou (+9200)

Bauchou's approach game is one of the best in the field at +0.334 strokes gained on approach, and his overall statistical profile ranks inside the top 10 of this field. His course fit for easy scoring conditions is among the strongest of anyone teeing it up, and his iron play translates directly to birdie chances on a course that gives up low numbers. At 92-to-1 for a player with a top-10 statistical profile and elite course fit, the price is too long.

First Round Leader

Keith Mitchell (+4000)

Same ball-striking profile that makes him an outright play, but even more relevant for a single round. His +0.592 off the tee and +0.248 on approach give him one of the widest margins for error in the field from tee to green. For one round, all it takes is the ball-striking to show up and a few putts to drop. His upside is among the top three in this field.

Blades Brown (+6600)

Brown's course fit for easy scoring conditions is among the best in the field, and his statistical ceiling is top two. For a single round where you need one hot stretch to lead, that ceiling matters more than anything else. He's made five consecutive cuts showing the floor is real, and TPC Deere Run's scoring holes are built for his game.

Doug Ghim (+6000)

The best tee-to-green player in the entire field at +0.921. For first round leader, ball-striking is the most predictive factor since putting has the highest variance in any single round. Ghim's ball-striking gives him a wider margin than almost anyone else to post a low number even if the putter is just average. Six consecutive cuts and one of the safest floors in the field to go with that ceiling.

A.J. Ewart (+10000)

Ewart's +0.632 strokes gained putting makes him a birdie machine when the opportunities come, and his course fit for easy scoring conditions is top three in the field. Over his last five starts he's been one of the hotter players in this field, and for a single round, all it takes is one afternoon where the putts fall. At 100-to-1 for a player with this putting skill and recent form, the value is there.