John Deere Classic 2026: Round 2 Plays

Outright Add: Patrick Fishburn (+3300, DraftKings)

Fishburn shot -6 in Round 1 and was one of the best ball-strikers in the entire field. His combined off-the-tee and approach number was +3.80, which ranked 4th out of 143 players. What makes his round stand out is that only 6% of his strokes gained came from putting. He gained +1.66 OTT, +2.14 on approach, and +0.70 around the green. That kind of tee-to-green dominance is far more repeatable than what we're seeing from other names near the top of the board. Compare that to guys like Lee Hodges, where nearly 48% of his strokes gained came from the putter, or Matt Wallace at over 90%. Fishburn is sitting two back with the most sustainable performance profile of anyone in the top 10 on the leaderboard. At +3300 he's being priced like a longshot when the underlying numbers say he's a legitimate threat to win this thing.

R2 Leader

Patrick Fishburn (+2100, DraftKings)

Same player, but even more confident in this market. He's only two shots off the pace, and the guys ahead of him are more vulnerable than the scoreboard suggests. Glover and Blair (+510) both had 34-37% of their strokes gained come from putting. Fishburn was at 6%. You're getting over four times the odds on a player with comparable ball-striking and a much more sustainable round. If both groups play a similar R2, Fishburn has the better chance of holding form because his R1 wasn't inflated by the flat stick.

Tom Kim (+5500, DraftKings)

Kim is four back at -4 but the scorecard undersells how well he played. His ball-striking was elite in R1, gaining +2.69 combined off the tee and on approach, with a particularly strong approach number of +2.49. The problem was the putter, where he actually lost strokes (-0.35). So despite hitting the ball beautifully, his score was held back. Putting tends to normalize round to round, and if his flat stick simply comes back to average, he's looking at a -7 or -8 type round that would put him right in the mix for the R2 lead. At +5500 you're getting a player with elite approach play and a built-in bounce-back factor on the greens.

R2 Matchup: Tom Kim (-118) over Rickie Fowler (-112) (DraftKings)

This one comes down to Round 1 quality. Kim shot -4 with strong ball-striking across the board, gaining +2.69 combined OTT and approach, and his putting was actually negative. His round was built on skill, not luck. Fowler shot -1 with a ball-striking number of -0.46, which ranked 86th out of 143 players. He was negative off the tee and negative on approach. Pre-tournament, Kim profiles as a significantly stronger statistical fit for this course with better recent form and approach numbers. The line of -118 is fair for a player who is outperforming Fowler by a wide margin in every meaningful category through one round.