U.S. Open 2026: Pre-Tournament Picks

Outrights

Collin Morikawa (+4000): Wait Until Thursday Night

The best ball-striker in the field behind Scheffler. Season APP of +0.764 leads all realistic contenders, and his combined BS of +1.156 is elite. His putting at -0.239 means 100% of his scoring comes from ball-striking, which is the most sustainable profile you can build for a major championship. His U.S. Open fit metrics are stacked: DiffAPP #2 (his approach game actually gets better when courses get harder), Rough Penalty #5, MF Penalty #3, Avoiding Mistakes #8. Weighted Scoring #5, Weighted T2G #4, Weighted APP #2. USO History #5 confirms he performs at this event, and he's made 5 consecutive cuts.

The play here is to wait until Thursday night. He tees off at 1:14 PM Thursday, which puts him in the dead zone on the worst weather day of the week. He's going to eat 40-50mph gusts for his entire round. That should depress his R1 score and likely push his outright number higher by Thursday night. But here's the key: Thursday is by far the worst day of weather this week, and Morikawa is absorbing the worst of it in the worst possible window. Once he gets through Thursday, the conditions improve significantly for the rest of the tournament. Friday is much calmer, and Morikawa flips to the AM wave, meaning he gets the more playable side of whatever weather remains. His BS sustainability means one rough round won't bury him. He doesn't rely on putting that can abandon you for 72 holes. The number should be better Thursday night than it is now, making this a smarter entry point for the same player.

Si Woo Kim (+3600)

The model has him ranked 10th overall with a DK gap of +15, meaning DK has him priced significantly lower than where the model says he belongs. His ball-striking of +1.012 (OTT +0.441, APP +0.571) is third among realistic contenders, and his putting at -0.219 means his total SG is entirely driven by ball-striking. When a guy's scoring is 100% sustainable and the market is pricing him 15 positions too low, that's a clear value spot.

His weighted metrics confirm the profile: Weighted T2G #2, Weighted Scoring #3, Weighted Total #9, L24 Form #6. He's not just good. His recent underlying game is trending in the right direction. Avoiding Mistakes #5 is critical at Oakmont in the wind, and MF Penalty #9 means he keeps the ball in the fairway. His form is strong right now (L5 #9, L10 #16, 20 consecutive cuts).

The weakness is Hard Scoring #33 (middling for a course that demands grinding) and USO History #48 (he hasn't historically performed at this event). But at 36/1 with that ball-striking sustainability and that model gap, those weaknesses are priced in and then some.

Keith Mitchell (+13000)

This is the deep-cut value play. His ball-striking of +0.812 (OTT +0.596, APP +0.216) is legitimate, and his OTT is among the best in the field. The weighted OTT rank of #7 means the model's course-adjusted projections see him as one of the best drivers this week. In wind like this, distance and driving accuracy are force multipliers, and he has both.

His Oakmont-specific profile is strong where it matters most: Rough Penalty #3 (third best in the field, he thrives in thick rough), MF Penalty #11, USO History #8 (he's shown up at this event before). His putting at -0.160 means fully sustainable scoring. Weighted Scoring #17 and Avoiding Mistakes #26 are solid.

The model has him at #42 with a DK gap of +20, meaning DK has him priced about 20 positions lower than the model thinks he should be. At 130/1, you need a very small probability for this to be profitable, and the model's assessment says the probability is significantly higher than the market implies.

The honest concerns: his form is cold (L5 #55, L10 #80, L24 Form #61) and his Safety rank of #46 means he has higher variance. He tees off at 7:19 AM Thursday, putting him at the edge of the dead zone. But at 130/1, you're not betting on probability. You're betting on the gap between what DK thinks and what the ball-striking profile says is possible if he shows up with his game.

Round 1 Leader

Patrick Cantlay (+7000)

This is where model rank, weather advantage, and ball-striking sustainability all converge on one player at a price that's too high.

Cantlay is model #12 with Avoiding Mistakes #3 in the entire field. On a day where 40-50mph gusts are going to produce doubles and triples all over the course, being third in the field at avoiding big numbers is arguably the single most important trait you can have. He tees off at 2:09 PM, which puts him in the best weather window of the day. His back 9 comes as the wind starts dying after 5pm, meaning his final 5-6 holes are in the most scoreable conditions anyone will see on Thursday.

His BS of +0.805 (OTT +0.351, APP +0.455) is strong and sustainable, with only 4.1% putting contribution. In 40mph wind, putting becomes semi-random for everyone, which means the guys who don't depend on it (like Cantlay) lose less relative to the field than the guys who do. His L24 Form #4 says the underlying game is peaking right now, L10 #5 confirms it, and the DK gap of +12 says the market has him too low.

Weighted T2G #8, DiffAPP #18, Rough #25, MF #27. All solid. At 70/1 for R1 leader, you're getting a model top-12 player with the best Avoid rank among anyone in the best weather window, whose game doesn't rely on putting. The market is pricing the name, not the profile.

Si Woo Kim (+4100)

Si Woo tees off at 7:41 AM, which puts him in the early-AM window. While 7:41 AM is technically past the very early cutoff (6:35-7:08), he's still in the earlier portion of the day. He'll start his round with winds around 15-20mph sustained and face the ramp-up to 40mph+ by his back 9. Counting the very early AM wave as slightly better than the very late PM wave, they're both roughly in the same tier: a few manageable holes to start, with the conditions getting progressively harder as the round goes on. The early guys get their easy holes first and grind through the worst; the late guys grind through the worst first and finish easy. It's functionally similar, and both groups are meaningfully better off than the dead zone players who eat the peak gusts for their entire round.

The profile holds up in wind: BS +1.012 is third among contenders, Avoiding Mistakes #5, Weighted T2G #2, MF Penalty #9. The -0.219 putting means none of his scoring is putter-dependent, which is exactly what you want when gusts make the greens unpredictable. L5 Form #9 and L24 Form #6 say the game is sharp right now. Upside rank #8 means the model sees top-of-leaderboard ceiling in a single round. At 41/1 for R1 leader, the combination of elite BS, negative putting dependency, early-wave weather positioning, and elite Avoid rank makes this a strong play.

Ben Kohles (+25000)

The deepest dart on the card, backed by real structural edges. He tees off at 2:20 PM, the latest tee time of any player we're targeting, which means his back 9 catches the most wind relief of anyone on Thursday. His final 4-5 holes could be played in conditions 15-20mph calmer than what the mid-day players face on their closing stretch.

His BS of +0.817 is elite, and his putting of -0.529 is the most negative in the field. Zero, literally zero, of his scoring comes from the putter. On a day where 40mph gusts turn putting into a coin flip, a guy whose game is entirely ball-striking driven loses nothing from that randomization while everyone else regresses.

Weighted APP #6 and Weighted T2G #14 say the model sees a strong tee-to-green game on this course type. The model has him ranked #73 overall, which is a longshot profile, and his form is terrible (L5 #91, L10 #88). But at 250/1 you don't need this to hit often. You need the price to be wrong by enough, and the combination of the best weather window on the board plus the purest ball-striking profile in the field (by putting contribution) creates a scenario where his probability of leading after R1 is higher than 1-in-250 implies. This is the kind of structural dart where all the edges stack in the same direction.

Matchups

Collin Morikawa (-130) over Viktor Hovland

Both in the PM dead zone (Morikawa 1:14 PM, Hovland 1:25 PM). Same wave, weather cancels.

This is the widest skill gap on the matchup board relative to the price. The model has Morikawa at #11 and Hovland at #34, a 23-rank gap, and DK is only charging -130 for it.

The ball-striking separation tells the story: Morikawa's BS of +1.156 (OTT +0.392, APP +0.764) vs Hovland's +0.667 (OTT -0.006, APP +0.673). Morikawa generates nearly half a stroke more from ball-striking per round. But the real separation is in the Oakmont-specific metrics, and it's not close. Rough Penalty: Morikawa #5, Hovland #97. Missed Fairway Penalty: Morikawa #3, Hovland #92. Avoiding Mistakes: Morikawa #8, Hovland #62. Diff APP: Morikawa #2, Hovland #35.

What this means in practice: Hovland is going to miss fairways (MF #92 says he's one of the worst in the field at staying in play), and when he does miss, he can't recover from the rough (#97 says he's near the bottom of the field at playing from thick grass). At Oakmont, where the rough is historically brutal and the fairways are narrow, that combination is devastating. Now layer on 40-50mph gusts and his OTT of -0.006. He essentially generates zero off the tee. He can't drive the ball in calm conditions, let alone in this wind.

Morikawa is the mirror opposite. MF #3 means he keeps it in the fairway. Rough #5 means when he does miss, he recovers. Diff APP #2 means his approach game actually improves on harder courses. And his putting at -0.239 (vs Hovland's -0.006) means his scoring is entirely ball-striking driven, which is the more sustainable source in wind.

The DK gap confirms the mispricing: Hovland's gap is -18 (the market has him 18 positions higher than the model thinks he belongs), while Morikawa's gap is +1. DK is giving you the model's preferred side at -130 in a matchup where the Oakmont-specific separation is as wide as any on the board.

Patrick Cantlay (-120) over Wyndham Clark

Clark tees off 1:36 PM (dead zone). Cantlay tees off 2:09 PM (best weather window). Cantlay has a structural weather edge.

This is a case where the ball-striking gap, the course-fit gap, and the weather gap all point the same direction, and DK has Clark as the slight favorite (-108).

Ball-striking: Cantlay +0.805 (OTT +0.351, APP +0.455) vs Clark +0.175 (OTT +0.003, APP +0.172). Clark's OTT of +0.003 is essentially zero. He generates nothing off the tee. In 40-50mph gusts, that's functionally a negative because he doesn't have the ball speed or trajectory control to manage the wind. Cantlay's OTT of +0.351 isn't elite but it's real, and paired with his APP of +0.455, his tee-to-green game is in a different tier. The BS gap of +0.630 strokes per round is one of the widest in any matchup.

Course fit: Cantlay has Avoiding Mistakes #3 (third best in the field) vs Clark's #27. At Oakmont in this wind, avoiding mistakes is everything. Cantlay's Rough #25 and MF #27 are both meaningfully better than Clark's #77 and #68. Clark's DiffAPP #14 is his one strong Oakmont metric, but Cantlay's #18 is right there with him, so there's no separation where Clark is strongest.

Weather: Cantlay tees off at 2:09 PM, putting his back 9 in the 5pm+ window where the wind starts dying. Clark at 1:36 PM starts his back 9 around 4:15 PM, meaning he faces peak gusts for more of his closing stretch. It's not a huge gap (33 minutes), but on a day with 40-50mph gusts, every hole of wind relief matters, and Cantlay gets more of it.

Form: Clark's L24 Form #3 is elite and is the main reason DK has him close. But Cantlay's L24 Form #4 is right next to him. There's no form separation. The model gap of 6 ranks (#12 vs #18), the DK gap difference (+12 vs +1), and the BS sustainability (4.1% putting for Cantlay vs 21.1% for Clark) all confirm Cantlay is the mispriced side. DK pricing Clark as the slight favorite is wrong.

Akshay Bhatia (-122) over Dustin Johnson

Both in the PM dead zone (DJ 1:36 PM, Bhatia 1:58 PM). Weather essentially cancels.

The model gap here is 41 ranks, the largest in any matchup DK is offering. DJ is model #82. Bhatia is model #41. And DK has DJ as the slight favorite at -108.

DJ's profile is a mess. No PGA Tour SG data (LIV), so we rely on the model's weighted rankings, and they're ugly: Weighted T2G #87, Weighted APP #71, Weighted Scoring #103, Weighted Total #113, L24 Form #77. Avoiding Mistakes #107 is the number that should scare you off DJ entirely. In a 40-50mph gust day at Oakmont, the guy ranked 107th in the field at avoiding big numbers is going to make a lot of them. His DK gap of -25 means the model thinks the market has him priced 25 positions too high. He's living off name recognition and past results, not current form or current skill.

Bhatia isn't a perfect profile. His BS is only +0.274 (OTT -0.138, APP +0.412), with negative OTT and a putting dependency of 60.3%. In wind, the putting dependency is a concern. But his approach game is real (+0.412), his DiffAPP #15 says he can hit quality approaches on difficult courses, and his Weighted Scoring #16 and Weighted APP #22 show the model sees value in his game this week. Avoiding Mistakes #48 isn't great, but it's 59 positions better than DJ's #107.

The bottom line is simple: in a head-to-head, you're betting on who plays worse, and DJ's profile has far more downside. His Avoid #107 in peak gusts, combined with Weighted Scoring #103 and the model ranking him 82nd, means the floor is much lower than Bhatia's. DK having DJ as the favorite here is one of the bigger pricing errors on the board.

Adam Scott (-124) over Kristoffer Reitan

Both dead zone AM (Scott 8:03 AM, Reitan 7:30 AM). Weather cancels.

9-rank model gap (#27 vs #36) with the separation driven entirely by approach game and Oakmont course fit.

The approach numbers are the headline: Scott's APP of +0.505 vs Reitan's APP of +0.010. Reitan's approach game is essentially zero. He generates almost nothing with his irons. Scott's is elite and, importantly, his Weighted APP #14 and DiffAPP #28 say the model sees that approach game translating specifically to this course type. Reitan's Weighted APP #65 and DiffAPP #61 are nowhere close.

The total BS gap confirms it: Scott +0.831 vs Reitan +0.520. Both have sustainable profiles (Scott -11.6% putting, Reitan -33.7%), so neither is relying on the putter. But Scott's BS advantage of +0.311 strokes per round is significant in a head-to-head.

Oakmont metrics favor Scott across the board: Rough #10 vs #57, MF #15 vs #40, Weighted T2G #13 vs #36, Weighted Scoring #11 vs #71. The Weighted Scoring gap (#11 vs #71) is one of the widest in any matchup. The model's course-adjusted scoring projection has Scott as a top-12 player this week and Reitan outside the top 70.

Reitan's best argument is L24 Form #8 vs Scott's #33, showing he's been playing better recently. His OTT of +0.510 is also better than Scott's +0.326, giving him a driving advantage in the wind. But the approach gap is too wide for driving to overcome. Once both players reach their approach shots, Scott's +0.505 vs Reitan's +0.010 creates roughly half a stroke of separation per round from irons alone.

Scott's DK gap of +15 vs Reitan's -5 says the model thinks Scott is underpriced and Reitan is slightly overpriced. At -124, you're getting the better ball-striker, the better approach player, and the better Oakmont fit at a reasonable price.