U.S. Open 2026: Round 2 Picks

R2 Leader: Wyndham Clark (-122)

Clark's R1 wasn't just good, it was historically dominant. He gained +3.96 strokes through ball-striking alone (SG OTT +1.39, SG APP +2.57), which is an elite tee-to-green performance at any event, let alone a U.S. Open at Oakmont. Yes, he also gained +4.04 on the greens, but even if you strip the putting entirely and assume full regression, the ball-striking baseline still projects as the best R2 round in the field. On season he ranks 3rd in Avoiding Mistakes and his L24 form trend is sharply positive, meaning he's been playing better recently than even his season averages reflect. He's 4 shots clear with holes still to play. The lead could grow before R2 even starts.

R2 Matchup: Keith Mitchell (-118) over Tom Kim

This is the widest statistical gap on the R2 matchup board. Both shot even par in R1, so there's no positional noise here. It's purely about who is better equipped to score in R2 at Oakmont.

Mitchell's R1 ball-striking was +2.32 (SG OTT +1.10, SG APP +1.22) compared to Kim's +1.35 (SG OTT +0.28, SG APP +1.07). On season, the separation is even more dramatic: Mitchell gains 0.812 strokes per round through ball-striking vs Kim's 0.142. Mitchell's driving game is specifically built for penalizing setups. He ranks 11th in High Missed Fairway Penalty, 3rd in High Rough Penalty, and 7th in Weighted OTT. Kim ranks 85th, 85th, and 108th in those same categories. Oakmont punishes you off the tee harder than almost any course on the schedule, and Mitchell's ability to handle that punishment is among the best in the field while Kim's is among the worst. Mitchell also ranks 17th in Weighted Scoring vs Kim at 88th. At -118 this is the best value matchup on the board.